Remain’s models are built on poor foundations Roger Bootle, Telegraph and MSN

The Treasury, and some other bodies, have subjected the Brexit option to trial by macro-economic model. Various assumptions were fed into a series of equations which, on the basis of past experience drawn from a number of countries, are supposed to embody wisdom about how the key economic variables will respond. 

The model whirred and then spewed out forecasts for our post-Brexit future.
These methods are unsuitable for assessing the impact of such a seismic politico-economic event. Moreover, the assumptions that have been plugged into the models have typically been bizarre. For instance, the Treasury study assumed no regulatory changes. 

The Treasury's models made some surprising assumptions

Equally, it assumed we would not be able to do any new trade deals with the EU or anyone else. Nevertheless, we would continue to impose the EU’s tariff on imports from the rest of the world. No wonder this exercise concluded Brexit would cause an economic loss from reduced trade.

This conclusion derives further loss from lower investment and even weaker productivity growth. But if trade does not fall, there is no reason for these effects to occur.

To these trade-related effects is added the impact of uncertainty, which will supposedly persuade people and companies to defer spending. Yet if there is a loss of confidence after Brexit, the responsibility for this will rest with the Prime Minister and Chancellor for spreading pessimism about our prospects outside the EU.

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British economy on course to be world's best performing economy after growing faster than at any point since the crash. Daily Mail

Britain is in 'poll position' to be the best performing major economy in the world after securing growth of 2.6 per cent in 2014, new figures showed today.

It is the highest level of annual growth since before the financial crash, which David Cameron said was proof that the government's economic plan is working.

But the data showed the pace of expansion slowed more sharply than expected in the last three months of the year.

The annual figure for the whole of 2014 is the best since 2007, before the recession. It puts the UK on course to have been the world's fastest growing major economy last year.

But gross domestic product (GDP) rose by just 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, the weakest level in a year, weighed down by a construction sector which shrunk at its worst pace for more than two years.

Growth of 0.5 per cent puts the UK in poll position to be the fastest growing G7 economy in 2014   Lib Dem Danny Alexander

The growth figure for 2014 was widely expected, though falls short of the 3 per cent forecast last month by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). It beats 2013's figure of 1.7 per cent and matches the 2.6 per cent recorded in 2007.

US growth figures are due to be published on Friday. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates its growth at 2.4 per cent.

The British economy is now 3.4 per cent bigger than the pre-recession peak at the start of 2008, according to the ONS.

Lib Dem Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander said: 'Quarterly growth of 0.5 per cent puts the UK in poll position to be the fastest growing G7 economy in 2014.

'There is much more to do, but this figure represents solid progress, especially against a backdrop that sees many of our key markets still suffering from economic problems.'

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How oil's become the world's most potent weapon. Daily Mail

How oil's become the world's most potent weapon: Forget nuclear arms. The U.S. and Saudis are behind an oil price crash that could topple regimes in Russia and Iran

1.      Price of oil has fallen dramatically - down by nearly half in six months

2.    The collapse in price means it is cheaper to fill up your car at the pumps

3.     But has sparked fiscal crisis that threatens to shift global power balance

4.    U.S. and Saudi Arabia are using market slump to wreak havoc on enemies

5.     While Russia - which depends on a bouyant price - is on the edge of crisis

6.     Most pressing issue for Britain is the fate of oil industry in North Sea basin

From Russia to America, and from Scotland to the Middle East, the dramatic fall in the price of oil — down by nearly half in six months — has sparked an economic crisis that threatens to shift the global balance of power in dramatic fashion.

As Russia teeters on the edge of crisis, America and Saudi Arabia are using the depressed oil market to wreak havoc on enemies such as Iran. The repercussions are being felt closer to home, too, with the North Sea oil industry described as being close to collapse.

The good news is that it’s cheaper to fill up your car at the pumps, but what does it mean for Britain’s national security?

Here, the Economist magazine’s Energy Editor EDWARD LUCAS offers a simple guide to these deeply turbulent times.

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