Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Tuesday, 21 June 2016
George Soros: EU exit risks 'black Friday' , The Guardian and MSN. More scare tactics from the Remain Campaign
The
world’s most famous currency
speculator has warned that a vote on Thursday for Britain to leave the
EU would trigger a bigger and more damaging fall for sterling than the day he
forced Britain out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism almost a quarter of a century
ago.
George
Soros, writing in the Guardian, said a Brexit vote would spark a ‘black Friday’
for the UK, but the devaluation of sterling would bring none of the benefits to
the economy that it enjoyed after it dropped out of the ERM on 16 September 1992
– Black Wednesday.
He
said that, as in 1992, there would be big financial gains for speculators who
had bet on the UK leaving the EU but that such an outcome would leave “most
voters considerably poorer”.
Soros
said that unlike after Black Wednesday, there was little scope for a cut in
interest rates, the UK was running a much larger current account deficit, and
exporters would be unable to exploit the benefits of a cheaper pound due to the
uncertainty caused by a vote to leave the EU.
“Sterling
is almost certain to fall steeply and quickly if leave wins the referendum,”
Soros said. “I would expect this devaluation to be bigger and also more
disruptive than the 15% devaluation that occurred in September 1992, when I
was fortunate enough to make a substantial profit for my hedge fund investors
at the expense of the Bank of England and the British government.”
Sunday, 19 June 2016
Brexit won't cause recession, Michael Gove says, as David Cameron warns there will be 'no turning back' , Telegraph and MSN
Britain will thrive outside the European Union, Michael Gove declares, as he rejects warnings that Brexit will cause a recession and urges the country to “vote for hope”.
In a passionate appeal to the public to set the country free from Brussels rule, the Vote Leave leader predicts the economy will prosper from a decision to pull out of the EU in this week’s historic referendum.
Mr Gove says voters should have confidence in Britain’s capacity to achieve “great things” as an independent country that is wholly run by MPs who are democratically elected by the British people.
In an interview with The Telegraph, he says the UK will be better placed to cope with the strains of global economic disruption if the country takes back full control over its own affairs.
Further Reading:
Saturday, 18 June 2016
IMF: Brexit May Not Mean A British Recession ,Msn & Sky News
Britain need
not suffer a recession if it leaves the European Union, the International
Monetary Fund has said in its assessment of the risks around the referendum.
The Fund said that the UK economy would be
comparatively weaker if it left the EU but under its "limited"
scenario - in which Britain stayed in the European Economic Area, the group
that includes Norway - growth would slip from 2.2% to 1.4% next year.
The drop is significantly smaller than that
forecast by the Treasury. However, the Fund said that under an
"adverse" scenario, in which the UK left the EU and failed to seal a
Norway-style deal, having to fall back on World Trade Organisation rules, the
UK would suffer a recession in 2017, with the economy shrinking by 0.8%.
The Fund's conclusions about the economic impact of
Brexit have been highly anticipated for the past month, since its managing
director, Christine Lagarde said that they would range "from pretty bad to
very, very bad".
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There is no doubt that since 1973, the country has prospered. Indeed, we joined the Common Market because we thought it was the answer to the economic malaise that had led to Britain being dubbed “the sick man of Europe”.
But all industrialised countries are wealthier than they were then, not just those in Europe. Arguably, the economic and financial changes wrought during the 1980s, together with the decline of trade union power, contributed far more to our GDP growth than membership of the Common Market.
Is it seriously being suggested that had we continued to function as an independent nation for the past 43 years like, say, Australia or Japan, we would today be the impoverished off-shore neighbour of a continental powerhouse? We cannot be sure; but there is no reason to believe so.