Tuesday, 21 June 2016
Our last chance to escape from the disaster movie unfolding across Europe: RICHARD LITTLEJOHN on the stark choice facing Britain in Thursday's referendum
The
sun will come up on Friday morning whatever the result of the referendum. But
Leave or Remain, Britain will never be the
same country again.
We
face a stark choice. Do we vote to become once more the ultimate masters of our
own destiny, with the power to make our laws and control our own borders?
Or
do we conclude that we are incapable of running our own affairs and are better
off as a meek dependency of an ever-expanding European superstate?
That's
the nub of the argument, not the wildly alarmist horror stories which have
characterised the risible propaganda pumped out by Remain. This has always been
about democracy and self-determination, not money. You can't put a price on
independence and national sovereignty.
Only
a fool would predict the result with any certainty, even at this late stage.
But if Remain prevails, we will have missed an historic opportunity to escape
from the disaster movie unfolding across Europe. The EU has brought economic
ruin to some member states and condemned a generation of young people to a lifetime
of unemployment.
Angela
Merkel's suicidal, unilateral decision to invite millions of Middle Eastern and
North African migrants to take advantage of Europe's open borders and advanced
welfare systems will have cultural and demographic repercussions for decades to
come.
George Soros: EU exit risks 'black Friday' , The Guardian and MSN. More scare tactics from the Remain Campaign
The
world’s most famous currency
speculator has warned that a vote on Thursday for Britain to leave the
EU would trigger a bigger and more damaging fall for sterling than the day he
forced Britain out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism almost a quarter of a century
ago.
George
Soros, writing in the Guardian, said a Brexit vote would spark a ‘black Friday’
for the UK, but the devaluation of sterling would bring none of the benefits to
the economy that it enjoyed after it dropped out of the ERM on 16 September 1992
– Black Wednesday.
He
said that, as in 1992, there would be big financial gains for speculators who
had bet on the UK leaving the EU but that such an outcome would leave “most
voters considerably poorer”.
Soros
said that unlike after Black Wednesday, there was little scope for a cut in
interest rates, the UK was running a much larger current account deficit, and
exporters would be unable to exploit the benefits of a cheaper pound due to the
uncertainty caused by a vote to leave the EU.
“Sterling
is almost certain to fall steeply and quickly if leave wins the referendum,”
Soros said. “I would expect this devaluation to be bigger and also more
disruptive than the 15% devaluation that occurred in September 1992, when I
was fortunate enough to make a substantial profit for my hedge fund investors
at the expense of the Bank of England and the British government.”
Monday, 20 June 2016
Remain’s models are built on poor foundations Roger Bootle, Telegraph and MSN
The Treasury, and some other bodies, have subjected the Brexit option to trial by macro-economic model. Various assumptions were fed into a series of equations which, on the basis of past experience drawn from a number of countries, are supposed to embody wisdom about how the key economic variables will respond.
The model whirred and then spewed out forecasts for our post-Brexit future.
These methods are unsuitable for assessing the impact of such a seismic politico-economic event. Moreover, the assumptions that have been plugged into the models have typically been bizarre. For instance, the Treasury study assumed no regulatory changes.
The
Treasury's models made some surprising assumptions
Equally,
it assumed we would not be able to do any new trade deals with the EU or anyone
else. Nevertheless, we would continue to impose the EU’s tariff on imports from
the rest of the world. No wonder this exercise concluded Brexit would cause an
economic loss from reduced trade.
This
conclusion derives further loss from lower investment and even weaker
productivity growth. But if trade does not fall, there is no reason for these
effects to occur.
To
these trade-related effects is added the impact of uncertainty, which will
supposedly persuade people and companies to defer spending. Yet if there is a
loss of confidence after Brexit, the responsibility for this will rest with the
Prime Minister and Chancellor for spreading pessimism about our prospects
outside the EU.
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There is no doubt that since 1973, the country has prospered. Indeed, we joined the Common Market because we thought it was the answer to the economic malaise that had led to Britain being dubbed “the sick man of Europe”.
But all industrialised countries are wealthier than they were then, not just those in Europe. Arguably, the economic and financial changes wrought during the 1980s, together with the decline of trade union power, contributed far more to our GDP growth than membership of the Common Market.
Is it seriously being suggested that had we continued to function as an independent nation for the past 43 years like, say, Australia or Japan, we would today be the impoverished off-shore neighbour of a continental powerhouse? We cannot be sure; but there is no reason to believe so.