- Businesses and academics warn country would be plunged into turmoil
- Scotland would join the list of impoverished European countries
- Another says there would be 'utter panic' if voters back independence
By ALAN RODEN
|
Finance experts, academics and business leaders have raised fears that independence would destroy the economy, hit investment and force companies to migrate to England.
In an unprecedented survey that will prove devastating for the SNP, analysts believe a Yes vote in the referendum could lead to the loss of thousands of jobs and plunge the country into turmoil.
One finance insider suggested Scotland would be added to the list of impoverished European countries left on their knees. Another said there would be 'utter panic' among finance firms and several warned of a 'disaster' for Scotland.
Setback: The vision of independence set out by Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon risks the Scottish economy and would see businesses flee to England, experts warn
Alex Salmond's separatist vision was dismissed as 'economically incoherent'; there were warnings that 'skilled labour' would leave; and creating a new border would cut gross domestic product (GDP) by as much as 3 per cent.
The findings are particularly humiliating for Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who yesterday predicted the economy would be the key battleground in the referendum campaign.
The Financial Times asked a number of high-profile economists and eminent university professors to examine the impact of a Nationalist victory in September.
In a daunting verdict, 27 respondents said it would hurt the Scottish economy and the rest of the UK.
Only four people who took part in the survey said a Yes vote could have a positive impact.
Former Chancellor Alistair Darling, who is leading the pro-Union Better Together campaign, said the findings prove that the 'risks involved in leaving the UK are massive'.
But a spokesman for the Yes Scotland campaign insisted separation would 'encourage growth and increase employment'.
Referendum: Voters in Scotland will have their saying on leaving the UK this autumn
FARMERS WANT TO STAY IN UK
Farmers are overwhelmingly set to reject independence, according to a survey.
Scots Lib Dem MEP George Lyon received 2,000 replies to a study he conducted, with 72 per cent of respondents supporting the Union.
Three-quarters of farmers expressed concern about the impact separation could have on EU agricultural subsidies.
Four-fifths said uncertainty over currency would harm their businesses, while 72 per cent feared separation would make it difficult to sell produce in the rest of the UK.
Mr Lyon said: 'Everyone wants to see a thriving Scottish rural economy, but if you look at the real positives we get from the UK market, from our place in Europe and our trade links overseas, our farmers can achieve more as part of the UK family.
'Scotland's place in the EU is not only vital for farmers, but also for jobs and growth.' But Rural Affairs Secretary Richard Lochhead has claimed farmers would have been handed an extra £1billion in European subsidies if Scotland were separate.
Philip Rush of Japanese finance giant Nomura launched a stinging attack on the SNP vision. 'Higher taxes on income would push many wealthy individuals and some companies they work for south of the Border, harming Scotland's economy,' he said. 'A fate similar to the secular stagnation in productivity seen in parts of Europe's socialist south may await.'
Ruth Porter of the Policy Exchange think-tank was similarly dismissive, saying: 'The raft of economically incoherent policies being proposed by Alex Salmond would be disastrous for Scotland.' Gavyn Davies of Fulcrum Asset Management described a Yes vote as an 'unmitigated disaster for Scotland' as did Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC bank.
One of the main results of an SNP victory in the referendum would be the loss of companies - and jobs - to England, several experts said.
Keith Wade, chief economist of asset management firm Schroders, commented: 'When combined with the considerable uncertainty over whether Scotland can remain in the EU, Scottish business would start to head south.'
David Owen, chief European financial economist with investment firm Jeffries, said: 'Scotland is likely to see an ongoing loss of business as it migrates south of the Border.'
Andrew Hilton of the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation warned: 'If there were a Yes vote there would be utter panic - with the Scottish fund managers heading for the Border in droves.'
Neville Hill of Credit Suisse bank said: 'The flow of direct and portfolio investment, as well as some bank deposits, south of the Border would provide Scotland with a nasty negative monetary shock.'
Many of those taking part in the survey said uncertainty would devastate the economy.
James Knightley of banking giant ING said: 'I think the uncertainty will be damaging for everyone ... it is going to make a lot of foreign companies think twice about investing in the UK.'
Melanie Baker of Morgan Stanley warned of 'increased uncertainty for businesses and markets'.
Brian Hilliard of French banker Société Générale said: 'It would create major uncertainty about the viability of the country as an economic unit. Growth would be hurt.'
Ray Barrell of Brunel University in London warned that independence 'is the introduction of a new border. That is likely to reduce Scottish GDP by 3 per cent, and English GDP by 1 per cent'.
Alistair Darling, leading the Better Together campaign against independence, said the findings prove that the 'risks involved in leaving the UK are massive'
An independent Scotland's reliance on oil was also highlighted, with Philip Shaw of financier Investec predicting 'overall it will be on a slow growth path'.
But despite the strong warnings Miss Sturgeon said yesterday: ‘I firmly believe who wins the economic argument will win the referendum.
‘Scotland can more than afford to be independent, something that even the No campaign agrees with. We need the powers over the economy to get faster and more sustainable growth into the economy for the long term.’
A spokesman for Yes Scotland added: ‘The greatest uncertainty for business as well as the country as a whole stems from a ‘No’ vote. With ‘Yes’, we can tailor policies to suit our own needs and priorities, thereby encouraging growth and increasing employment.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2533222/Scottish-independence-economic-disaster-finance-experts-warn-just-SNP-say-economy-key-battleground.html#ixzz2pMyug9zO
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
No comments:
Post a Comment