Brian Monteith: Rushing towards fiscal uncertainty, The Scotsman

IT’S difficult to trust Salmond’s economic judgment after his previous prevarications and u-turns, writes Brian Monteith

WHILE pundits and spin doctors seek to suggest who won the first referendum debate between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling, what is self-evident is that the debate helped to distil the question down to one single issue. In the event that Alex Salmond cannot get the currency option of his choice (a formal currency union using sterling) what is his Plan B? The answer, there was none.

As we hurtle at break-neck speed to the vote on 18 September I am sure we can expect more of the same; the personal but small distractions will be tossed aside and we shall focus more on what for the majority of us are the big issues. Such as what will be the new more expensive price for Scotland remaining a member of the European Union, or how will Scotland pay for the cost of its pension liabilities when our workforce will be shrinking and our pension bill rising (before even considering Nicola Sturgeon’s promise of a lower pensionable age in some parallel universe that only she inhabits).

There may be others, such as the pick-and-mix sweetie shop of freebies and goodies that nationalists have been dreaming up to be paid for by the munificence of oil revenues – while at the same time telling us we can have a sovereign oil fund that by implication requires a more austere approach to public welfare.

We shall see what matters most, but for all that, the one crucial issue that Scots residents (as opposed to the broader body of Scots that would more usually have a say in the future of their country) are already well tuned into is how our economy might or might not work if we secede from the United Kingdom and choose the SNP’s offer of independence without independence. (For those of you not used to reading my column let me recap that there will be no referendum on the new price of EU membership and its tighter straightjacket, there will be less influence than present with any formal currency union and even less still with any unofficial use of sterling, while many other institutions that we shall seek to keep access to such as the BBC we shall have no say in).

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Further reading:

Scottish independence: ‘Mortgages up £1600 if Yes’

Scottish independence: No campaign 'playing with fire' says Salmond

Alex Salmond goes on the counter attack over pound claiming: No camp's tactic of ruling out currency union makes no economic sense

Beyond the Scottish Independence Question, Looking at a Greater Devolution in The United Kingdom, A Perspective,

Labour question how an independent Scotland would fund state spending after 37% fall in revenue from North Sea tax

Alex Salmond demands Danny Alexander apologises for a missing 'mountain of black gold' as the two trade blows over oil figures

Scottish independence: FM stands firm on currency, The Scotsman

“An independent Scotland would keep the pound because it’s our currency and it would be in the interests of the rest of the UK to agree to currency sharing. But if the rest of the UK won’t agree, an independent Scotland would punish it by repudiating its pro rata share of UK debt…..Yes, it would remove a hefty burden from our shoulders. But an independent country that began life with debt repudiation would find it could not raise money in international markets without lenders demanding substantially higher interest rates. Scotland’s credit rating would be rock bottom.”