12 September
The nationalists want us to believe that we are on the
verge of another oil boom and that oil will pay for everything.
The problem with this argument is
that it is simply wrong. Now one of the experts that nationalists rely on has
corrected the record. Professor Alex Kemp the oil expert relied
upon by Alex Salmond to give credibility to his oil estimates , has today said that a
separate Scotland would have no oil bonanza.
In
a letter to the Press and Journal Professor Kemp wrote;
“SIR,
- In Wednesday’s Press and
Journal, there was a headline attributed to myself predicting an “oil bonanza”
from the North Sea. Nowhere did I say this.In our research, our economic model predicts that investment will
fall off in the near future, while oil/gas production could increase for a few
years, but then enter long-term decline. The total recovery we predict to 2050
is in the 15-16.5billion barrels of oil equivalent.
By
2050, production is in the 200,000-250,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
But production can continue well beyond 2050. Our current estimate of the
ultimate potential is certainly less than the 21 billion barrels of oil
equivalent which is at the upper end of DECC’s most likely range. There will be no bonanza.”
The timing of this letter will come
as a blow to Alex Salmond who in
recent weeks has used Professor Kemp’s name to deflect criticism that his oil
forecasts have been overestimated .
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