EU referendum: What will happen to Britain if there's Brexit? Here are four possible outcomes, MSN and the Washington Post

 

When Britons go to the polls on June 23, they will have the opportunity to jettison their country's membership in the European Union -- an outcome popularly known as Brexit.

But the ballot won't say anything about what should replace E.U. membership. That will be up to negotiators -- representing Britain on one side and the governments of the 27 other E.U. member nations on the other -- who will spend the next two years hammering out the terms of divorce if Britain votes to leave.

Pro-Brexit campaigners have said that Britain will continue to swap goods and services with E.U. nations; those imports and exports now make up about half the country's trade volume. Brexit advocates also say that Britain will be free from stultifying Brussels bureaucracy once it leaves the E.U.

But how will that actually work? And what are the chances that Britain's post-Brexit reality will match the rhetoric of those advocating for "out"? Those arguing for "in" say Brexit would be a leap in the dark, with leading economists warning of dire consequences.

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British economy on course to be world's best performing economy after growing faster than at any point since the crash. Daily Mail

Britain is in 'poll position' to be the best performing major economy in the world after securing growth of 2.6 per cent in 2014, new figures showed today.

It is the highest level of annual growth since before the financial crash, which David Cameron said was proof that the government's economic plan is working.

But the data showed the pace of expansion slowed more sharply than expected in the last three months of the year.

The annual figure for the whole of 2014 is the best since 2007, before the recession. It puts the UK on course to have been the world's fastest growing major economy last year.

But gross domestic product (GDP) rose by just 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, the weakest level in a year, weighed down by a construction sector which shrunk at its worst pace for more than two years.

Growth of 0.5 per cent puts the UK in poll position to be the fastest growing G7 economy in 2014   Lib Dem Danny Alexander

The growth figure for 2014 was widely expected, though falls short of the 3 per cent forecast last month by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). It beats 2013's figure of 1.7 per cent and matches the 2.6 per cent recorded in 2007.

US growth figures are due to be published on Friday. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates its growth at 2.4 per cent.

The British economy is now 3.4 per cent bigger than the pre-recession peak at the start of 2008, according to the ONS.

Lib Dem Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander said: 'Quarterly growth of 0.5 per cent puts the UK in poll position to be the fastest growing G7 economy in 2014.

'There is much more to do, but this figure represents solid progress, especially against a backdrop that sees many of our key markets still suffering from economic problems.'

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Now Scotland wants tax breaks to bail out struggling oil industry... just four months after Salmond said North Sea would bankroll his independence dream, Daily Mail

Now Scotland wants tax breaks to bail out struggling oil industry... just four months after Salmond said North Sea would bankroll his independence dream

·         Price of a barrel of Brent crude has more than halved since June to $48

·         Dramatic fall undermines SNP claim that oil would make Scotland rich

·         Now Scottish ministers are demanding UK government steps in

·         Chancellor George Osborne under pressure ahead of Budget in March

·         Oil expert Sir Ian Wood says taxes should be cut by up to 10%

·         Tories condemn SNP 'deceit' that the price of oil would rise and rise

The Scottish government is demanding tax cuts to bailout the oil industry, just four months after claiming that booming North Sea reserves would bankroll independence.

The move has been ridiculed by supporters of the Union, who point out that if voters had backed independence in September the country would not be in crisis.

The price of a barrel of Brent crude – the global benchmark – has more than halved since June to around $48 (£31.50). Experts predict it could fall as low as $31 (£20.44) by April.

The weak oil price seriously undermines the claim by the SNP's Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon nationalists that an independent Scotland could rely on its natural resources.

Scotland's Energy Minister last night issued a demand for new tax breaks to shore up the industry, after BP announced it was cutting 200 onshore workers and 100 contractor roles from its 3,500 staff in the North Sea.

Mr Ewing said: 'It is clear to me that the UK Government has accepted it must act on tax. My question is why wait in respect of the supplementary charge until March

'This is the most serious jobs situation Scotland has faced in living memory.'

But rival parties have this week condemned the SNP for demanding help from Westminster just months after wanting to sever ties with the rest of the UK. 

Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said: 'The SNP told the people of Scotland the price of oil would rise and rise - that was a deceit.

'No end of experts pointed out the many flaws in this fanciful policy, but they were dismissed by the Scottish Government as scaremongering.

'In the last few weeks we've seen just how volatile the price of oil really is.'  

Read more here:

How oil's become the world's most potent weapon. Daily Mail

How oil's become the world's most potent weapon: Forget nuclear arms. The U.S. and Saudis are behind an oil price crash that could topple regimes in Russia and Iran

1.      Price of oil has fallen dramatically - down by nearly half in six months

2.    The collapse in price means it is cheaper to fill up your car at the pumps

3.     But has sparked fiscal crisis that threatens to shift global power balance

4.    U.S. and Saudi Arabia are using market slump to wreak havoc on enemies

5.     While Russia - which depends on a bouyant price - is on the edge of crisis

6.     Most pressing issue for Britain is the fate of oil industry in North Sea basin

From Russia to America, and from Scotland to the Middle East, the dramatic fall in the price of oil — down by nearly half in six months — has sparked an economic crisis that threatens to shift the global balance of power in dramatic fashion.

As Russia teeters on the edge of crisis, America and Saudi Arabia are using the depressed oil market to wreak havoc on enemies such as Iran. The repercussions are being felt closer to home, too, with the North Sea oil industry described as being close to collapse.

The good news is that it’s cheaper to fill up your car at the pumps, but what does it mean for Britain’s national security?

Here, the Economist magazine’s Energy Editor EDWARD LUCAS offers a simple guide to these deeply turbulent times.

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Brian Wilson: Border costs post-independence, The Scotsman

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE: Sending a letter is just one of the many things a border will make a great deal more expensive, writes Brian Wilson

It’s an old trick to ask if a politician knows the price of a pint of milk. I tried a variation of the same theme this week while debating with a luminary of Scottish nationalism.

A questioner asked about postal charges between Scotland and England in the event of independence. As usual, the Nat response was that life would go on as before. I asked if he knew what it costs to post a letter from the UK to the Republic of Ireland, even just a few hundred yards between north and south.

He didn’t, which seemed as careless as not knowing the price of a pint of milk. The answer is that, because Ireland is treated by Royal Mail as an international destination (as Scotland would become), the cost of postage is between twice and four times greater than the cost of a first-class stamp, for delivery within five days.

Consider the plea of a local politician in County Tyrone who paid £2.38 for a stamp that would have cost, at most, 62p if the letter had stayed within the UK. “It’s crazy,” she complained. “It is very expensive and nobody can understand it”. To which one might reasonably have replied: “It’s the border, stupid”.

In more rational times, quadrupled postal charges would represent quite an important issue and also an illustration of an under-stated truth – that borders are indeed very expensive and the costs are paid in money and jobs. I am not naïve enough to expect this to concern Nationalists but those who would be forced to pay their price might take note.

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Man who DELIBERATELY sabotaged Starbucks pay-it-forward line that had gone on for 10 hours and 457 customers , Daily Mail

A pay-it-forward chain at a Florida Starbucks ended when a man opted not to buy the coffee of the person behind him in the drive-through line.

Peter Schorsch, customer number 458, ordered two Venti Mocha Frappuccinos and was told that one of his drinks had been paid for by the previous customer and asked if he'd like to do the same for the next customer.

Schorsch declined, saying he felt the phenomenon was a marketing ploy for the company and no longer a spontaneous act of kindness when the barista asks the customer to pay it forward.

  

'I just don’t want to be forced into doing something,” Schorsch told ABC News.

'This is turning into a social phenomenon and I had to put an end to it.'

He had heard about a 'pay it forward' streak at the same Starbucks the previous day that ended on customer 359.

Schorsch didn't end the chain to be stingy, he said, adding that he tipped the barista $100.

Read more here:

Alex Salmond defends Plan B currency stance after losing Scottish debate on TV, Telegraph, Updated

First Minister Alex Salmond warns that without the pound an independent Scotland would refuse to take its share of UK debt and claims debate was a success for Yes camp.

Alex Salmond today continued to refuse to name his Plan B currency for a separate Scotland after holding a post-mortem discussion with advisers over his surprise defeat in the independence TV debate.

The First Minister arrived an hour and a half late at a conference for businessmen who support separation this morning, his first public engagement since he lost the STV showdown with Alistair Darling.

A defiant Mr Salmond defended his repeated refusal to name a Plan B currency if the remaining UK won't share the pound, despite being booed by the debate audience for dodging the question.

He even attempted to claim the debate had been a success for the Yes campaign, citing a snap ICM opinion poll that showed most Scots thought Mr Darling won the debate

The First Minister argued that a breakdown of figures revealed undecided voters gave him the victory and said support for independence had risen during the showdown.

But Unionist parties said he was clutching at straws after the figures showed that the support for the Yes campaign increased by only six voters during the debate, while backing for No rose by eight people.

Mr Salmond, who refused to take questions from the print press, pointed to another figure showing 74 per cent of undecided voters thought he had emerged victorious. The ICM breakdown showed this was the equivalent of only 23 people.

The First Minister also defended his repeated refusal to name a Plan B on the currency and warned that without the pound Scotland would refuse to take on its proportion of the UK debt after independence.

Read more here:

Further Reading here:

Scotland 'likely to be worse off after independence' Daily Telegraph

Independent Scotland's debt 'would force spending cuts or tax rises'

Analysts at Societe Generale said Scotland would have an “immense” task ahead of it were voters to opt for independence in next month’s referendum, disparaging claims from the “Yes” camp that the country would easily gain EU membership and grow rich off oil revenues.

A resounding 'no': the UK financial industry's verdict on Scottish independence

Kevan McDonald: Currency questions need answers, The Scotsman

Danny Alexander: Salmond stuck on pound question, The Scotsman

Scottish independence: Salmond says 'we're keeping the pound' BBC News

Independence: No camp ‘scaremongering’ over banks, The Scotsman

Sir George Mathewson, Ex Rbs Chief Executive.

CAMPAIGNERS for the Union have been accused of “scaremongering” about the impact of independence on Scotland’s financial sector, with a former Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) boss insisting this would be “an opportunity not a threat”.

Sir George Mathewson, a former RBS chief executive and chairman, argued that financial services in Scotland had been “neglected by the Westminster government and its London-centric policy”.

He also claimed that banks such as RBS and Lloyds could “scarcely be described as Scottish banks”, adding that if there was a Yes vote in next month’s referendum it should be the rest of the UK government that should be primarily responsible for dealing with the situation.

Sir George also gave his backing to Scottish Government plans for a currency union with the rest of the UK to be established if there is a Yes vote on September 18, allowing an independent Scotland to continue to use the pound.

These proposals have already been dismissed by the three main Westminster parties and last week First Minister Alex Salmond was accused of a ‘’huge deception’’ over his plan.

Read more here:

Independence: RBS reiterate ‘Yes’ concerns

Scottish independence: Row over banking sector

From Eritrea and Sudan, the new migrant queue at Calais: Latest illegal encampment to spring up has hundreds who are currently waiting for the first chance to escape Daily Mail

Immigrants waiting in Calais, to get into the UK.

  Hundreds of migrants set up new illegal camp in French port of Calais

  Squalid, tented squat on town's outskirts has been nicknamed 'Jungle 2'

  It was set up two months after previous one in the town was bulldozed 

  Most of the migrants in the camp are from Eritrea, Sudan and Ethiopia  

They are desperate, defiant – and determined to get to England.

Many had scaled mountains, crossed deserts and sailed across an ocean to get here. 

Some of their companions had drowned, perished from starvation or been arrested before they made it.

They have nicknamed it Jungle 2 – a squalid, tented squat on the outskirts of the French port. The previous one in the town was bulldozed two months ago. 

That followed the clearance in 2009 of the original Jungle area on the outskirts, and the razing of the notorious Sangatte refugee centre in 2002.

All of that was meant to have put an end to the constant, ever-growing flow of hopefuls waiting to cross the Channel by any means possible. 

All it did was to drive them to other parts of Calais.

+5

Desperate: Two migrants try to break into a container lorry

 And so, Jungle 2 is currently a miserable but convenient stepping-stone to the UK for more than 500 itinerants, a population rapidly swelling with families fleeing Eritrea, Sudan and Ethiopia.

So it is not surprising that on Friday – despite threats of eviction, alleged beatings from police and an international outcry by homeless charities and migrant help groups – so many insisted they would stay for as long as it takes to get to England.

As one teenage Eritrean put it: ‘We will get there eventually.’

The new Jungle is situated on the seaward side of a road used by lorries heading to the port.  It is a swathe of wasteland and sand dunes, owned and used by a chemical factory to bury supposedly non-toxic waste. 

Read more here:

Further Reading:

DAILY MAIL COMMENT: The still-gaping holes in Britain's borders 

OUTRAGE: Labour propose 15 per cent death tax, Daily Express

Ed Miliband, Labour Leader.

Ed Miliband’s team were accused of plotting a compulsory levy that could snatch £46,000 from the average estate.

Critics warned that families still grieving for lost relatives could face a “secret tax bombshell” under the proposals.

The row was last night threatening to derail the Labour leader’s campaign to highlight party ­election promises.

And it was also being seen as a slap in the face to the hundreds of thousands of Daily Express ­readers who backed this newspaper’s ­crusade for the abolition of ­inheritance tax.

Tory Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt said: “People who save all their lives deserve better than a secret tax bombshell if Labour were ever to get in.”

The death tax proposals were exposed when comments made by shadow health secretary Andy Burnham – at a conference ­organised by the Left-wing Fabian Society last month – were revealed yesterday.

Labour chiefs previously abandoned plans for a levy to cover the costs of social care before the last general election in 2010 – but Mr Burnham confirmed the measure was being revived in “internal party discussions”.

Read more here:

Further Reading

Labour death tax proposal is the last thing we need, Daily Express

It's good to tax the dead, they don't vote, jokes Ed Miliband's guru friend Lord Glasman

TAXPAYERS would be the equivalent of £5,500 worse off if union-backed Ed Miliband became Prime Minister, Justice Secretary Chris Grayling has warned.

This Polish boy lives in Warsaw... So why do WE pay his child benefit? Daily Mail

Mateusz Kossmann is a ten-year-old boy with a winning smile. 

Every morning, he’s taken to school by his mother Evita, who is delighted her son is in a small class of 14 other children.

The lessons are well-disciplined, pupils thrive academically and politely shake the hand of their teacher at the end of the day.It is just the kind of education Evita wants for Mateusz — and she has found it in her native Poland after a dispiriting spell living in England.

Once Poland became part of the EU in 2004, Evita — like thousands of other Eastern Europeans exploiting the EU open borders policy — excitedly migrated to Britain with her husband Sebastian, and their young son, to begin a new life.Sebastian, now 35, found an £18,500-a-year job in a Bristol factory and the couple successfully applied to be given £82 a month in child benefits for Mateusz, which is more than four times the £18 rate paid for children in Poland.

The Kossmann family is also entitled to £143 a month in child tax credits - a benefit not paid by the Polish government - to supplement Sebastian’s low income. This is paid annually, in arrears.Like countless other EU migrants, the family qualifies for the child-linked benefits because at least one parent works in Britain.

‘From day one, we felt the British welfare system was very generous,’ says Sebastian. ‘We are receiving far more than parents get in Poland. Getting the child tax credits, too, was a big amount of extra cash for us and we were pleased.’

Read more here:

Exclusive: The inconvenient truth Mr Cameron ignored in his 'crackdown' on immigrant benefits... Migrants handed £5billion tax credits

Comment:

I don’t understand why if a child who  lives in another EU Country his parents get Child Benefit and Tax Credits if one parent works here in the UK,  this situation needs reviewing and repealing.