Thursday, 7 August 2014

VIEWPOINT: Why Alex Salmond is deluded... Vote against political union is also a vote against currency union By SIR ANDREW LARGE AND SIR MARTIN JACOMB. Daily Mail, Updated

Successful partnerships or unions depend on give and take. Political unions provide for this. Money raised from taxpayers can then be transferred to wherever in the union needs it: in bad times and good, and over time. Our Union, as the UK including Scotland, has worked like that pretty well over the past 300 years.

One element of a political union is common money, underpinned by a currency union. That’s why we all have the pound. The money we use matters to us all. It must be universally accepted in payment; prices must be stable. And crises like 2008 must not undermine it.

So Mr Salmond’s claim that if Scotland votes ‘Yes’ there will be no change for Scotland’s money is a delusion at best. A vote against political union is also effectively a vote against currency union.

The Scottish Nationalists think that the three political parties who rule out a currency union are bluffing. But why would the rest of the UK wish to support Scotland with their taxpayers’ money?

Claims that it is in the UK’s interests to continue the currency union forget the potentially open ended longer-term commitments: whatever the short-term trade benefits.

And to insist that Scotland would be stronger than the UK is not self-evident. The lessons are there in the European Union. The UK rejected the euro because we knew this needed political union.

The euro’s difficulties won’t be overcome until that can be achieved. It’s not there yet, and the lack of political union today prevents wealth transfers where needed: resulting in mass unemployment in Spain, Portugal and Greece.

Of course Scotland has other options. They all involve change, and risk. Scottish nationalists may feel the risks are worth it. But they need to know what they would be.

Scotland could continue to use the pound but with no formal agreement with the rest of the UK. Some small countries do this: Kosovo uses the euro, Panama the US dollar and Jersey the pound.

The consequence for the Scots would be that they would have no say over monetary policy. The rest of the UK would issue the pound, and look first to its own interests, not Scotland’s.

Another consequence is that banknotes issued by Scottish banks could be in jeopardy. Today these are equivalent to Bank of England notes, but people might think otherwise if the bank was in a foreign country.

Mr Salmond could peg the Scottish pound to sterling. But Scottish taxpayers would need to build a multibillion pound reserve to defend this against speculators, to avoid what happened when the UK itself was forced out of the parity with the developing euro [ERM] as recently as 1992

No pound, no euro: With a vote on Scottish independence imminent, why Scotland needs a plan C

'You are really scrabbling around now!' Alistair Darling takes the fight to Alex Salmond in first live TV debate on Scottish independence

Tom Peterkin: Salmond causes frustration for SNP

Senior SNP figures stick the knife into Alex Salmond after his disastrous showing in the TV indy debate

Scottish independence: Salmond says 'we're keeping the pound' BBC News

In 2003, Mr Salmond told me Scotland would be independent in 20 years. After that debate I doubt it By STEPHEN GLOVER. Daily Mail

Diminished in stature: The wily, charming Alex Salmond was easily beaten in the debate by the supposedly boring, bank managerish Alistair Darling

During the 2003 Scottish elections I found myself walking around the back streets of Dundee with Alex Salmond. He was not then leader of the Scottish Nationalists, though he had been, and would soon be again. I remember him as an amiable and rumpled figure.

At one of our pit-stops he said something that chilled my blood. He told me that in 20 years, if not before, Scotland would be an independent country. He asserted this so calmly and confidently that it was hard to disbelieve him.

I wonder whether Tuesday evening’s debate with Alistair Darling will mark the point when Mr Salmond and the rest of the world began to realise that his prophecy of an independent Scotland has been confounded, at any rate for a generation.

And I also wonder whether the debate might remind Labour that Mr Darling (still only 60) is a considerable but often underrated politician who in most respects stands head and shoulders above the party’s present leader, Ed Miliband.

The debate had been billed as a contest between the wily, charming Mr Salmond, and the boring, bank managerish Mr Darling. Some supporters of the Union had had so many qualms about the former Chancellor that there had been private talk of replacing him with the more pugnacious John Reid, a Cabinet minister in the Blair administration.

In the event, though, it was the supposedly plodding Mr Darling who easily won the day. An instant Guardian/ICM poll after the debate gave him victory by 56 per cent to 44 per cent. It is hard to find anyone even in the Yes camp who thinks their man did well.

By the way, let me say how outrageous it was that the contest could not be viewed south of the border except online, and even then the picture was often interrupted. These two men were discussing the future of our country, Britain, and yet most citizens of the United Kingdom were excluded from the debate.

Wednesday, 6 August 2014

Alex Salmond defends Plan B currency stance after losing Scottish debate on TV, Telegraph, Updated

First Minister Alex Salmond warns that without the pound an independent Scotland would refuse to take its share of UK debt and claims debate was a success for Yes camp.

Alex Salmond today continued to refuse to name his Plan B currency for a separate Scotland after holding a post-mortem discussion with advisers over his surprise defeat in the independence TV debate.

The First Minister arrived an hour and a half late at a conference for businessmen who support separation this morning, his first public engagement since he lost the STV showdown with Alistair Darling.

A defiant Mr Salmond defended his repeated refusal to name a Plan B currency if the remaining UK won't share the pound, despite being booed by the debate audience for dodging the question.

He even attempted to claim the debate had been a success for the Yes campaign, citing a snap ICM opinion poll that showed most Scots thought Mr Darling won the debate

The First Minister argued that a breakdown of figures revealed undecided voters gave him the victory and said support for independence had risen during the showdown.

But Unionist parties said he was clutching at straws after the figures showed that the support for the Yes campaign increased by only six voters during the debate, while backing for No rose by eight people.

Mr Salmond, who refused to take questions from the print press, pointed to another figure showing 74 per cent of undecided voters thought he had emerged victorious. The ICM breakdown showed this was the equivalent of only 23 people.

The First Minister also defended his repeated refusal to name a Plan B on the currency and warned that without the pound Scotland would refuse to take on its proportion of the UK debt after independence.

Independent Scotland's debt 'would force spending cuts or tax rises'

Analysts at Societe Generale said Scotland would have an “immense” task ahead of it were voters to opt for independence in next month’s referendum, disparaging claims from the “Yes” camp that the country would easily gain EU membership and grow rich off oil revenues.

A resounding 'no': the UK financial industry's verdict on Scottish independence

Kevan McDonald: Currency questions need answers, The Scotsman

Danny Alexander: Salmond stuck on pound question, The Scotsman