Expert confirms ‘There will be no oil bonanza’,

12 September

The nationalists want us to believe that we are on the verge of another oil boom and that oil will pay for everything.

The problem with this argument is that it is simply wrong. Now one of the experts that nationalists rely on has corrected the record. Professor Alex Kemp the oil expert relied upon by Alex Salmond to give credibility to his oil estimates , has today said that a separate Scotland would have no oil bonanza.

In a letter to the Press and Journal Professor Kemp wrote;

“SIR, - In Wednesday’s Press and Journal, there was a headline attributed to myself predicting an “oil bonanza” from the North Sea. Nowhere did I say this.In our research, our economic model predicts that investment will fall off in the near future, while oil/gas production could increase for a few years, but then enter long-term decline. The total recovery we predict to 2050 is in the 15-16.5billion barrels of oil equivalent.

By 2050, production is in the 200,000-250,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. But production can continue well beyond 2050. Our current estimate of the ultimate potential is certainly less than the 21 billion barrels of oil equivalent which is at the upper end of DECC’s most likely range. There will be no bonanza.”

The timing of this letter will come as a blow to Alex Salmond who in recent weeks has used Professor Kemp’s name to deflect criticism that his oil forecasts have been overestimated .

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Salmond planning victory parties before polling day even starts, Daily Express

ALEX Salmond was last night ­accused of “planning parties” and taking independence for granted ­after announcing “a day of celebration” on Friday.

The First Minister asserted that Westminster politicians were going to “get their comeuppance” because he believes Scots are going to vote Yes in “very substantial proportions”.

He made the comments in Glasgow yesterday after ­taking time out from his two-day helicopter tour of Scotland in an ­aircraft named ‘Saltire One’.

Yes Scotland chief executive Blair Jenkins also predicted that his side would win Thursday’s poll, saying: “I think we’ve got a Yes vote.”

However, critics suggested Mr Salmond’s over-confidence could become his “Neil Kinnock moment”, referring to the infamous Sheffield rally which cost Labour the 1992 general election

Meanwhile, Finance Secretary John Swinney has admitted that a separate Scotland would have to ­increase borrowing to support its ­independence plans. Appearing on BBC Radio Four’s Any Questions? , he was quizzed on how the country would provide free tuition, free ­prescriptions and a free NHS.

Explaining that he was planning to increase public spending by three per cent, he conceded that borrowing would also have to increase.

He said: “The United Kingdom is borrowing up to its oxters just now, so don’t consider it a revelation that suddenly an independent Scotland might borrow some money.

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Scottish independence: 'Yes campaign every bit as dodgy as Iraq dossier', Daily Telegraph

By Andrew Gilligan

One of the key themes of the Yes independence campaign – I saw it scrawled on a No poster in Edinburgh only last night – is that a “free Scotland” will no longer be tricked into illegal wars based on lies.

But as the BBC reporter who first exposed those lies, I believe that Scotland is being led over a cliff by a dossier every bit as dodgy as the one that took us into Iraq.

Like the whole of Britain in 2003, Scotland in 2014 is being asked to fix a problem that does not exist. Back then, it was an imaginary threat from Iraq. Now, it is an imaginary threat to the NHS, 45 minutes from destruction if you vote No.

Back then, it was the supposed “clash of civilisations” between Islam and the West. Now, it is a supposed “fundamental conflict of social values” between two nations, England and Scotland – whose social values, all surveys show, are extremely similar.

And just as in 2003, Scotland is also being asked to tackle another problem that is real and does exist – but in a way that will only make that problem worse, for itself, and for all of us. Back then, we were told that invading Iraq would protect us from international terrorism. In fact, of course, it gave international terrorism a boost beyond al-Qaeda’s wildest hopes and dreams.

Now, Scots are told that independence will protect them from global capitalism. They are told that a new international border at Gretna will form a magic shield against the City, the Tories, and the cuts.

In fact, after a Yes vote the City, the Tories, and the architects of the cuts would have more power over Scotland, not less.

Because what is offered by Alex Salmond and the Yes campaign is not independence. It is sharing a currency, whether formally or informally, with England.

Scotland’s central bank would be in London. All the key levers of Scotland’s economic policy – interest rates, borrowing and spending – would be controlled not in Edinburgh, but by a UK government that Scots no longer had any role in choosing; a government much more likely than before to be Tory, without Scottish votes.

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