IT’S
difficult to trust Salmond’s economic judgment after his previous
prevarications and u-turns, writes Brian Monteith
WHILE
pundits and spin doctors seek to suggest who won the first referendum debate
between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling, what is self-evident is that the
debate helped to distil the question down to one single issue. In the event
that Alex Salmond cannot get the currency option of his choice (a formal
currency union using sterling) what is his Plan B? The answer, there was none.
As
we hurtle at break-neck speed to the vote on 18 September I am sure we can
expect more of the same; the personal but small distractions will be tossed
aside and we shall focus more on what for the majority of us are the big
issues. Such as what will be the new more expensive price for Scotland
remaining a member of the European Union, or how will Scotland pay for the cost
of its pension liabilities when our workforce will be shrinking and our pension
bill rising (before even considering Nicola Sturgeon’s promise of a lower
pensionable age in some parallel universe that only she inhabits).
There
may be others, such as the pick-and-mix sweetie shop of freebies and goodies
that nationalists have been dreaming up to be paid for by the munificence of
oil revenues – while at the same time telling us we can have a sovereign oil
fund that by implication requires a more austere approach to public welfare.
We
shall see what matters most, but for all that, the one crucial issue that Scots
residents (as opposed to the broader body of Scots that would more usually have
a say in the future of their country) are already well tuned into is how our
economy might or might not work if we secede from the United Kingdom and choose
the SNP’s offer of independence without independence. (For those of you not
used to reading my column let me recap that there will be no referendum on the
new price of EU membership and its tighter straightjacket, there will be less
influence than present with any formal currency union and even less still with
any unofficial use of sterling, while many other institutions that we shall
seek to keep access to such as the BBC we shall have no say in).
Further
reading:
“An independent Scotland would keep the pound because it’s our currency
and it would be in the interests of the rest of the UK to agree to currency
sharing. But if the rest of the UK won’t agree, an independent Scotland would
punish it by repudiating its pro rata share of UK debt…..Yes, it would remove a hefty burden from our shoulders. But an
independent country that began life with debt repudiation would find it could
not raise money in international markets without lenders demanding
substantially higher interest rates. Scotland’s
credit rating would be rock bottom.”
